The Polish society seems no longer to conform to the pattern of bipolar society divided into advocates of „Solidarity” and supporters of post-communist parties. The legend and achievements of „Solidarity” seem to be fully accepted by the majority of the Polish society. The recent public opinion poll indicates that 68 pct of Poles believe that August’ 80 strikes were a worth while event. The opposite opinion was voiced by only 17 percent of respondents and 15 pct did not hale any opinion.

„It was worth it,” according to 90 percent of voters of the right-wing and centrist parties of the Law and Justice PiS, the Citizens’ Platform PO and the Democratic Party – demokraci.pl (PD). The same opinion was voiced by 75 percent of supporters of left-wing parties the Social Democracy of Poland SdPl., the Polish Peasant Party PSL and the populist Samoobrona movement. Also 50 pct of advocates of the post –communist Democratic Left Alliance SLD expressed his opinion.

On September 25, 2005 Poles will go to the polls to elect a new parliament. Most recent public opinion polls indicate that a Sejm coalition of the Citizens’ Platform PO and the Law and Justice (PiS) may count on 52 percent of supporting votes which would give 295 it seats in the 460-MP-strong Sejm (the lower chamber of the Polish Parliament) - 159 gained by the liberal centrist PO and 136 by the right-wing PiS. The result means that the liberal-right-wing coalition would lack only 12 seats to secure the parliamentary majority. However, according to another poll, the parties have the same number of supporting votes therefore will not lack any seats for the required majority. Parliamentary seats would also be won by populist Samoobrona - 11 percent of votes and 58 seats, the post-communist Democratic Left Alliance SLD - 10 percent of votes and 57 seats and the conservative extreme right League of Polish Families LPR which would introduce 50 MPs.

According to analysts, support for the PO and the PiS would rather increase if the parties manage to keep cool and refrain from attacking each other.

Though both leading parties have declared the willingness to form a coalition they do not conceal that their programs differ a lot. The PiS is for more active welfare policy, skeptical as regards privatisation, less concerned about the budget balance and strongly against the flat-rate tax. The liberal PO is concerned about the budget deficit and the flat-rate tax is its election slogan. The said differences may cause problems for the future coalition government.

Both parties are concordant as regards the foreign policy and in particular the country’s eastern policy especially towards Russia and Belarus. PO leader and party presidential candidate Donald Tusk believes that Poland should speak with one voice as regards its eastern policy and, should adopt a joint position on the issue with Germany. This has been approved by PiS and its presidential runner Lech Kaczyński.

Next comes Samoobrona which has announced plans to cut taxes for Polish investors while raising them for foreign ones. Its leader Andrzej Lepper (also runs for president) speaks about the need to renegotiate the Accession Treaty with the EU.

The SLD also stands chances of winning seats in the future parliament. The party which came to power in 2001 with about 40 pct support, is this time struggling just to keep a place in the parliament following a series of corruption scandals that ruined its reputation. Its new leader Wojciech Olejniczak has said the party needed to go back to its roots by protecting the poor and disenfranchised, fighting for equal rights for men and women and protecting minorities including homosexuals.

LPR leader Roman Giertych and his party are mainly concerned with combating corruption and related scandals, especially in the privatisation process.

Support for the centrist Polish Peasant Party PSL barely reaches the 5 percent required by electoral law for political parties to enter the parliament.

According to the polls, remaining parties do not stand a chance to win parliamentary seats. Among them is the Democratic Party – demokraci.pl, the staunch supporter of Poland’s close integration with the EU, the flat-rate tax and assistance to the Polish minority oppressed in Belarus as well as the Social Democracy of Poland SdPl (a splinter group that left the SLD earlier in the year to recently form an alliance with the left-wing Union of Labour and the Green Party 2004). Marek Borowski, its leader and another presidential candidate, says his grouping stands for the flat-rate tax, countering corruption and against party cliques.

The polls suggest that only the PD is for close integration with the EU. Remaining parties would like to retain as much independence as it is possible within EU structures.

The first round of presidential elections is scheduled for October 9. The latest volatile opinion polls show candidates from left and right within a few points of each other. In the last poll centre-right candidates Donald Tusk (PO) and Lech Kaczyński (PiS) went neck-to-neck (21 percent each). Third was Andrzej Lepper from Samoobrona (17 percent) and fourth Włodzmierz Cimoszewicz of the SLD (16 percent) who led the popularity polls until recently. His falling rating may be attributed to controversy over his financial status statement. According to sociologists, inconclusive polls results show that Poles are still largely undecided in a campaign that has mainly focused on claims of corruption. Tomasz Żukowski, the sociologist from Warsaw University says that a significant part of the electorate appears to be „nomadic voters,” and nobody can reliably predict who they will vote for.”

The list of registered presidential runners comprises 31 names.

Polish Press Agency (PAP)

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